Hillary Clinton has for long been considered the Democrat’s front-runner in the US 2016 presidential race. This is the second time Clinton is eyeing the top post. In 2008, she lost to Barack Obama. Though independent Democrat Sen Bernie Sanders is also running for President, not many expect him to pose a credible challenge to Clinton within the party.
Early polls suggest that she stands the better chance in the general election as well. On online betting sites, the former Secretary of State and First Lady is the clear favourite. A survey by Harvard University's Institute of Politics shows that 55 per cent of all young adults in the US support her campaign. Having said that, it’s too early to estimate her chances, as the Presidential polls are still around 19 months away.
A lot can happen between now and then.
Criticism
Clinton is already facing a barrage of criticism. The news that she set up and operated a private e-mail system during her time at the State Department, and later requested to have it wiped clean, gave her campaign the first jolt. Her critics had also raised the issue that the Clintons’ charitable foundation had taken donations from foreign governments, including repressive ones such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The foundation had also received cash from the chairman of a Canadian company with uranium mining interests in the US and Kazakhstan. Their uranium holdings were later sold to a Russian energy conglomerate — a sale that required approval by the State Department led by Clinton.
While her campaign may claim that she never used her office to help donors, the criticism has done its damage. Besides, Clinton’s Republican rivals also attack her for her “failure” to provide enough security to the US ambassador in Libya, Christopher Stevens. He and three others were killed on September 11, 2012, in an attack by militants on a diplomatic compound in Benghazi.
Policy approaches
So, the question is whether Clinton can build a successful campaign and retain its momentum through the next 570-odd days despite these pressing challenges. It depends on what kind of policy approaches she takes to reach out to the American voters, especially the middle-class and working poor, who make up the bulk of the Democratic constituency. She will obviously have the first-mover advantage, as the Republican contest for nomination is likely to turn into a slugfest, with several candidates in the fray.
Obama legacy
Also, with the economy improving, Clinton would find it easier to defend the Obama legacy and set out her own vision for the country. Obama’s success during the last two campaigns was that he could stitch together a social alliance of the youth, women and minorities and blend them with the traditional vote base of the Democratic Party.
If Clinton manages to build on the ‘Obama coalition’, she stands a fair chance of becoming the first woman president of the world’s oldest democracy.