Good intentions and realpolitik rarely mix. That may well be the case with proposals from a trio of international bodies that seek to address some of US President Donald Trump’s gripes with the World Trade Organisation while providing ways for other countries to liberalise commerce without his signoff.
The report, penned by the WTO, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, calls for changes to rules on foreign direct investment to tackle restrictions such as joint-venture requirements and foreign equity limits. That should appeal to the White House, which has made such hurdles the focal point of its escalating trade dispute with China.
The organisations also offer something to partners worried about US trade obstruction. They suggest that groups of like-minded countries be encouraged to free up trade amongst themselves in certain areas rather than waiting until everyone can agree. One model the report cites is the 2015 Information Technology Agreement, in which fewer than a third of WTO members accounting for more than 90 percent of world trade in covered IT products agreed to lower trade barriers. More such deals might speed up the pace of liberalisation. But in most sectors, reaching such a critical mass would require China and the US to join the early movers, something that’s difficult to envision in the current environment.
The joint report also makes the case for opening up the service sector. It accounts for around two thirds of global GDP and employment but faces much higher barriers than most goods. Fostering more trade here could boost productivity and long-term growth prospects. But that ignores how much sentiment towards globalisation has changed.
Politicians in the United States and other countries that have seen their manufacturing sectors hollowed out are wary of exposing disgruntled voters to potentially more job losses and dampened wage growth. Trump, it should be noted, has focused on areas like steel and cars and rarely mentions services.
The US president’s willingness to challenge global trade rules is focusing minds on the benefits of those rules. But countries won’t agree to American demands without getting something in return. All the more so since politicians that question the benefits of ever-freer trade are in the ascendant in many Western countries. Good ideas may wither and die when sown in such difficult terrain.