First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win — such is the impact of this statement by Mahatma Gandhi’s that even UKIP stalwart Nigel Farage once quoted him.
A couple of years ago, if the question of the BJP making a mark in Odisha had arisen, no one would have given it a chance. After all, Odisha was among the few — the others being West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu — to have resisted the so-called ‘Modi wave’ in 2014, with the Biju Janata Dal bagging 20 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the State. The Naveen Patnaik-led outfit also managed to romp home in the Assembly elections held simultaneously, winning 117 seats out of 147.
However, the result of the recently concluded Panchyat polls seems to have changed the narrative. Results officially declared on Saturday showed that while the BJD remained the clear winner, the BJP made significant inroads and bagged eight Zilla Parishads, while the main opposition in the State, the Congress, was reduced to an insignificant third place.
With the BJD sitting atop with 472 seats out of 849 polled at the time of writing, it was the BJP that had most cause to celebrate with 298; it’s tally in 2012 was 36. Clearly, the ruling BJD has reason to worry. After almost two decades in power, the party seems to be feeling the heat of anti-incumbency for the first time.
Why the narrative matters
But why are these results important? There are two takeaways here. First, it shows that the much-debated demonetisation move has either taken a back seat with local issues dominating the agenda, or has only helped the BJP’s cause. But if anything is certain, it is that the note ban hasn’t adversely impacted the party.
Post notebandi, the BJP has swept the civic polls in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Chandigarh, Faridabad, and Maharashtra, and has now made a notable dent in Odisha.
This cannot be a coincidence. It only serves to show that voters cannot be taken for granted. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message seems to have resonated with the masses. It was a significant vote for change, highlighting rising apathy, non-performance and corruption by the incumbents.
More importantly, people are concerned about issues at the ground level. Close to 80 children dying in Malkangiri due to Japanese encephalitis late last year, more than 20 perishing in Nagada in Jajpur district due to malnutrition, and the Dana Majhi episode that went viral, only reflect gross neglect by erstwhile local bodies as well as the State government.
While the Prime Minister’s comment about Odisha being a poverty-stricken State raised a furore in the Assembly, these cases only serve to prove his statement right.
Second, these results not only indicate that the BJP is spreading its wings in hitherto unchartered territories, but paint the larger picture — it has emerged as a serious challenger to regional forces. With the Congress losing credibility and regional parties hanging on, the BJP has capitalised on the opportunity. Take the case of Maharashtra.
In the Assembly elections of 2014, parting with the Shiv Sena only benefited the BJP, as did going solo in the civic polls. The party managed to win more seats as compared to the total number the Sena was offering them, and it repeated the show in the BMC polls last week.
The lesson here is, that the BJP is being taken seriously as an alternative in States where it has not been strong till now, and where regional parties have been firm favourites — something that has rattled the likes of Uddhav Thackeray and Naveen Patnaik.
Shades of uncertainty
While the results of the civic polls have been a shot in the arm for the BJP, it is far from certain the party will win Odisha outright in 2019 , something it does only in States that witness a direct face-off against the Congress. The lack of a charismatic regional face and infighting regarding ticket distribution are major causes for headache in the central leadership.
While Jharkhand remains the only eastern State to have a BJP-led government, increasing support in Odisha, coupled with a weakening BJD government, only indicates that politics in the State will no more be a one-party show.
Moreover, with the steady decline of the Congress, the Indian political set-up has changed its tune.
What used to be a ‘Congress vs the rest’ show has now made a tectonic shift to being a contest between the national-level BJP and strong but nervous regional parties.